The NZDUSD moved to the lowest level since the week of March 22, 2020 yesterday with the price reaching a low of 0.56239. Looking at the weekly chart above, the low during that March 22, 2020 week reached 0.55829. The low from all of 2020 was down at 0.54668. Those are the two major targets on more downside momentum.
Like other pairs, the NZDUSD has seen a modest rebound today (see hourly chart below) and has seen the price of the pair move up to an intraday high of 0.57207 before rotating back to the downside (if the NZDUSD moves higher, the USD moves lower of course). The price is trading as I type at a new US/London low at 0.56378.
US yields have seen some retraceement of their earlier declines contributing to the NZDUSD selling (dollar buying). The 10 year is now up 4.4 basis points on the day at 3.97% after reaching a low at 3.801% earlier.
The gains in the US stocks have also seen some erosion although they are still higher on the day, but trading at session lows.
Technically, a move below the 0.56239 would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward 0.5600, then the lows from the weekly chart at 0.55829 and the 2020 low at 0.54668.
Looking at the hourly chart below the dollar is king theme is still intact. The pair is running from the 100 hour MA (blue line), and trend lines as well. The topside trend line was last tested last Thursday and that started the last run to the downside. The 38.2% of that move from that trend line comes in at 0.5725 currently. The high price today stalled just below that level at 0.57207. The sellers could not get above the minimum retracement level (of the last move down). Sellers ARE IN FULL control. Buyers losing. The dollar is king.
If the buyers are to take control (tarnish the kings crown), they would at the minimum need to get and stay above the 38.2% at 0.57251. That is the minimum. Move above that level, and the downward sloping trend lines are near converged currently at 0.5760. The 50% of the same move lower is just below that at 0.57564. The falling 100 hour MA is at 0.57694. The price has not traded above its 100 hour MA since September 13. All those levels would need to be broken to give the buyers of the pair (dollar sellers) some hope. Absent that, and the the dollar remains on the throne.
If you have not seen the weekend video: The Dollar is King, click below. For the dollar to lose some of its lustre, the buyers need to take back control. The technicals today show that they cannot do the minimum. They are still losing.
I would also invite you to view other videos from Adam and myself at our YouTube channel HERE.