AUDUSD sniffs the 100 day MA and finds buyers

100 day MA at 0.7379. The low reached 0.73822

The AUDUSD moved lower through part of the Asian, all of the European and the US morning session.

100 day MA at 0.7379. The low reached 0.73822

The pair moved from an Asian session high of 0.7469 to a low of 0.73822, reached as the time ticked toward the London fixing (fall around 88 pips). That low stalled just ahead of the 100 day MA at 0.73786. The price has bounced modestly and currently trades just below the 0.7400 level at 0.7398.

Looking at the hourly chart, the fall lower today took the price below the low from Tuesday’s trade at 0.74195, the low from yesterday’s trade at 0.74112 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 29 low at 0.74078. That area will now the resistance for sellers looking for more downside momentum. Stay below that area keeps the bears more control at least in the short term.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, on a move below the 100 day moving average (blue line), the next target would come against the 50% of the move up from the September low at 0.7362. Move below the 50% retracement level opens up the door for further downside momentum for the pair.

Of significant note for the AUDUSD is that the pair’s run to the upside in the month of October, saw the pair trend higher for the entire month. The high prices – reached the last two trading days of the month- stalled right against its 200 day moving average. The inability to get above that moving average was a significant hold (and has helped to tilt the bias more to the downside since those highs were reached).

The question now is “Can the lower 100 day moving average be broken?” or “Do support buyers come in against that level and the pair starts to trade back higher?”. A bounce could see price action start to trade up and down with the MAs as the wide targets on either extreme (until broken).

That is what is at stake for the AUDUSD pair going forward from the daily chart perspective.

AUDUSD on the daily chart

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