EURUSD stays below the 100 hour MA but can’t get below the swing area

100 hour MA at 1.1311

With the US employment report out tomorrow morning, the EURUSD rotated back below the 100 hour MA at 1.1311. The price moved below that level around the time London traders were heading home, and stayed below. 

100 hour MA at 1.1311

That’s the bearish news.

The not so bearish news is that the price remains:

  • Above a swing area between 1.1287 and 1.1294
  • Above the sideways 200 hour MA at 1.12719.

Get below both those levels and the sellers firmly in control.  The pair may be waiting for a shove after the jobs report tomorrow. 

Is there a control winner longer-term?

I would tilt the bias to the downside. The price high off the run lower from the end of October tumble could only get up to the 38.2% (and a topside swing area – see green numbered circles).  Yes, the price did get above the hourly MAs but as outlined the price is back below the 100 hour MA.  Finally, the low for the year was reached just 7 days ago.  That level would be a target on a break below the aforementioned support levels at 1.1287 and 1.12719.

Getting back above the 100 hour MA and then the 38.2% would steps in the bullish direction. Absent that, and the sellers are “winning” still. 

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