Comprehensive Analysis Predicts Bitcoin Price Near $20K This Year, $398K by 2030
June 30, 2020
A new, comprehensive analysis has predicted the price of bitcoin to reach almost $20K this year and will keep rising to almost $400K by 2030. The researchers have also predicted the future prices of several other major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin cash, ethereum, and litecoin.
New Bitcoin Price Forecast
The June edition of the Crypto Research Report (CRR) reveals price predictions for several cryptocurrencies: bitcoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, litecoin, and stellar. This is the 10th publication of the CRR report and it covers a popular valuation method used to forecast bitcoin’s future price called the “equation of exchange” model.
“The equation of exchange model is an absolute approach to valuing crypto assets,” the report begins. “This means that the model gives a target price that crypto assets should be priced at based on assumptions regarding changes in supply and demand.” Noting that “The absolute valuation approach is inspired by Mill’s equation of exchange, later formulated by Irving Fisher,” the CRR team detailed:
In this model, the percentage of the total addressable market (TAM) can be used to estimate a crypto asset’s implied future price.
After examining “all the variables and addressable markets,” the CRR researchers arrived at future price estimates for BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, and XLM. They expect the price of bitcoin to rise to $19,044 in 2020, $341,000 in 2025, and $397,727 in 2030. Ethereum’s price is expected to reach $331, $3,549, and $3,644 respectively while bitcoin cash’s price should climb to $414, $6,690, and $13,016 during the same time periods.
The target addressable market for all cryptocurrencies today is approximately $212 trillion, the report notes. It includes unit of account and medium of exchange, consumer loans, offshore accounts, reserve currency, store of value, online transactions, remittance, micropayments, unbanked, gaming, crypto trading, ICO funding, and STO funding. The largest use case for cryptocurrencies is as a medium of exchange, the CRR research team found, elaborating:
We believe that bitcoin is still at the very start of its adoption curve. The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 suggests that bitcoin has penetrated less than 0.44% of its total addressable markets. If this penetration manages to reach 10%, its non-discounted utility price should reach nearly $400,000.
The CRR analysis estimates that there are more than 40 million cryptocurrency users globally, and the number of crypto users in a country is positively correlated to the country’s GDP per capita. High GDP means more cryptocurrency adoption in the country.
Furthermore, “On-chain velocity for most coins is decreasing, while off-chain velocity is increasing, currently at an all-time high,” the report highlights, discussing in-depth how speculation and savings outpace all other uses of cryptocurrencies. They provided “evidence that growth in speculative transactions on exchanges is faster than the growth in using cryptocurrencies to buy goods and services.” The full Crypto Research Report can be found here.
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